Eficácia da ivermectina e atazanavir no tempo de recuperação dos sintomas de covid-19: uma coorte prospectiva / Effectiveness of ivermectin and atazanavir on time to resolution from covid-19 symptoms: a prospective cohort / Eficacia de ivermectina y atazanavir en el tiempo hasta lá resolución de los síntomas de covid-19: una cohorte prospectiva

Objetivo: avaliar a eficácia da Ivermectina e do Atazanavir em comparação com placebo no tempo de resolução dos sintomas e no tempo de duração da doença por COVID-19. Método: estudo observacional, de coorte prospectivo, longitudinal, descritivo e analítico com pacientes sintomáticos ambulatoriais, acompanhados por 06 meses em duas Unidades Básicas de Saúde para atendimento de COVID-19 em Teresina- Piauí, Brasil, no período de novembro a abril de 2021 identificados por amostragem aleatória 1:1:1. Foram realizados exames Reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) para confirmação laboratorial da suspeita de infecção pelo novo coronavírus e avaliação sociodemográfica e clínica. Resultados: dos 87 pacientes randomizados, 62,1% (n=54) eram do sexo masculino, com média de idade de 35,1 anos, possuíam companheira (53,9%), baixa renda (50,6%), eutróficos (40,7%) e sem comorbidades de saúde (78,2%). Não houve diferença entre o tempo médio para resolução dos sintomas, que foi de 21 dias (IQR, 8-30) no grupo atazanavir, 30 dias (IQR, 5-90) no grupo ivermectina em comparação com 14 dias (IQR, 9-21) no grupo controle. No dia 180, houve resolução dos sintomas em 100% no grupo placebo, 93,9% no grupo atazanavir e 95% no grupo ivermectina. A duração mediana da doença foi de 08 dias em todos os braços do estudo. Conclusão: o tratamento com atazanavir (6 dias) e ivermectina (3 dias) não reduziu o tempo de resolução dos sintomas e nem o tempo de duração da doença entre os pacientes ambulatoriais com COVID-19 leve em comparação com o grupo placebo. Os resultados não suportam o uso de ivermectina e atazanavir para tratamento de COVID-19 leve a moderado.

Objective: to evaluate the effectiveness of Ivermectin and Atazanavir compared to placebo in the time to resolution of symptoms and duration of illness due to COVID-19. Method: observational, prospective, longitudinal, descriptive and analytical cohort study with symptomatic outpatients, followed for 06 months in two Basic Health Units for COVID-19 care in Teresina-Piauí, Brazil, from November to April 2021 identified by 1:1:1 random sampling. Reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) tests were performed for laboratory confirmation of suspected infection with the new coronavirus and sociodemographic and clinical evaluation. Results: of the 87 randomized patients, 62.1% (n=54) were male, with a mean age of 35.1 years, had a partner (53.9%), low income (50.6%), eutrophic (40.7%) and without health comorbidities (78.2%). There was no difference between the median time to resolution of symptoms, which was 21 days (IQR, 8-30) in the atazanavir group, 30 days (IQR, 5- 90) in the ivermectin group compared with 14 days (IQR, 9- 21) in the control group. At day 180, there was resolution of symptoms in 100% in the placebo group, 93.9% in the atazanavir group, and 95% in the ivermectin group. The median duration of illness was 8 days in all study arms. Conclusion: Treatment with atazanavir (6 days) and ivermectin (3 days) did not reduce the time to symptom resolution or the duration of illness among outpatients with mild COVID-19 compared to the placebo group. The results do not support the use of ivermectin and atazanavir for the treatment of mild to moderate COVID-19.

Objetivo: evaluar la efectividad de Ivermectina y Atazanavir en comparación con placebo en el tiempo de resolución de los síntomas y duración de la enfermedad por COVID-19. Método: estudio de cohorte observacional, prospectivo, longitudinal, descriptivo y analítico con pacientes ambulatorios sintomáticos, seguidos durante 06 meses en dos Unidades Básicas de Salud para atención de COVID-19 en Teresina-Piauí, Brasil, de noviembre a abril de 2021 identificados por 1:1:1 muestreo aleatorio. Se realizaron pruebas de reacción en cadena de la polimerasa con transcriptasa inversa (RT-PCR) para confirmación de laboratorio de sospecha de infección por el nuevo coronavirus y evaluación sociodemográfica y clínica. Resultados: de los 87 pacientes aleatorizados, 62,1% (n=54) eran del sexo masculino, con una edad media de 35,1 años, tenían pareja (53,9%), bajos ingresos (50,6%), eutróficos (40,7%) y sin comorbilidades de salud (78,2%). No hubo diferencia entre la mediana de tiempo hasta la resolución de los síntomas, que fue de 21 días (RIC, 8-30) en el grupo de atazanavir, 30 días (RIC, 5- 90) en el grupo de ivermectina en comparación con 14 días (RIC, 9 - 21) en el grupo control. En el día 180, hubo una resolución de los síntomas del 100 % en el grupo de placebo, del 93,9 % en el grupo de atazanavir y del 95 % en el grupo de ivermectina. La mediana de duración de la enfermedad fue de 8 días en todos los brazos del estudio. Conclusión: El tratamiento con atazanavir (6 días) e ivermectina (3 días) no redujo el tiempo de resolución de los síntomas ni la duración de la enfermedad entre los pacientes ambulatorios con COVID-19 leve en comparación con el grupo placebo. Los resultados no respaldan el uso de ivermectina y atazanavir para el tratamiento de la COVID-19 de leve a moderada.

Health Equity and Decentralized Trials.

This Viewpoint discusses the proliferation of decentralized clinical trials during the COVID-19 pandemic and the need for rigorous studies to inform whether decentralized approaches promote or prevent access to clinical trials for people facing health disparities.

Historical controls in clinical trials: a note on linking Pocock's model with the robust mixture priors.

Several Bayesian methods have been proposed to borrow information dynamically from historical controls in clinical trials. In this note, we identify key features of the relationship between the first method proposed, the bias-variance method, which is strongly related to the commensurate prior approach, and a more recent and widely used approach called robust mixture priors (RMP). We focus on the two key terms that need to be chosen to define the RMP, namely $w$, the prior probability that the new trial differs systematically from the historical trial, and $s_v^2$, the variance of the vague component of the RMP. The relationship with Pocock's prior reveals that different combinations of these two terms can express similar prior beliefs about the amount of information provided by the historical data. This demonstrates the value of fixing $s_v^2$, e.g., so the vague component is "worth one subject." Prior belief about the relevance of the historical data is then driven by a single value, the prespecified weight $w$.

Conditional Power: How Likely Is Trial Success?

This JAMA Guide to Statistics and Methods article examines conditional power, calculated while a trial is ongoing and based on both the currently observed data and an assumed treatment effect for future patients.

Placenta prévia: um estudo baseado nas teorias de enfermagem / Placenta previa: a study based on nursing theories / Placenta previa: un estudio basado en las teorías de enfermería

Introdução: A gestação, apesar de ser um processo fisiológico na saúde da mulher, é uma etapa complexa que exige atenção diferenciada na assistência à saúde. Outrossim, existem algumas condições que provocam danos durante essa fase, como a placenta prévia. Objetivo: Este estudo tem como escopo evidenciar o processo de enfermagem frente à assistência à gestante com tal diagnóstico. Metodologia: A pesquisa tem caráter qualitativo, teórico com subsídio na bibliografia científica, envolvendo a compreensão holística e integral da paciente para a implementação de estratégia para o processo de enfermagem. A partir do estudo das teorias e da fisiopatologia e impactos clínicos, empregou-se as taxonomias do NANDA-I para traçar os diagnósticos de enfermagens mais condizentes. Resultados: Foram identificados 15 diagnósticos que contemplaram os dez domínios encontrados no NANDA. Considerações Finais: Os dados eleitos e o confronto com a literatura enfatizam a relevância positiva na prescrição de diagnósticos de enfermagem na escolha dos cuidados prestados e as teorias subsidiam a assistência materno-fetal.

Introduction: Pregnancy, despite being a physiological process in women's health, is a complex stage that requires special attention in health care. Also, there are some conditions that cause damage during this phase, such as placenta previa. Objective: The purpose of this study is to highlight the nursing process regarding care for pregnant women with such a diagnosis. Methodology: The research is qualitative, theoretical with support in the scientific bibliography, involving the patients holistic and integral understanding for the implementation of a strategy for the nursing process. Based on the study of theories and pathophysiology and clinical impacts, the NANDA-I taxonomies were used to outline the most consistent nursing diagnoses. Results: 15 diagnoses were identified that included the ten domains found in NANDA. Final Considerations: The chosen data and the confrontation with the literature emphasize the positive relevance in the prescription of nursing diagnoses in the choice of care provided and the theories subsidize maternal-fetal assistance.

Introducción: El embarazo, a pesar de ser un proceso fisiológico en la salud de la mujer, es una etapa compleja que requiere especial atención en el cuidado de la salud. Además, existen algunas condiciones que causan daños durante esta fase, como la placenta previa. Objetivo: El propósito de este estudio es resaltar el proceso de enfermería en relación con la atención a las gestantes con dicho diagnóstico. Metodología: La investigación es cualitativa, teórica con apoyo en la bibliografía científica, involucrando la comprensión holística e integral de las pacientes para la implementación de una estrategia para el proceso de enfermería. Con base en el estudio de teorías y fisiopatología e impactos clínicos, se utilizaron las taxonomías NANDA-I para delinear los diagnósticos de enfermería más consistentes. Resultados: Se identificaron 15 diagnósticos que incluían los diez dominios encontrados en la NANDA. Consideraciones finales: Los datos escogidos y la confrontación con la literatura enfatizan la relevancia positiva en la prescripción de los diagnósticos de enfermería en la elección de los cuidados prestados y las teorías subsidian la asistencia materno-fetal.

Microencapsulação de enterocina e oleo de oregano em leitelho / Microencapsulation of the enterocin and essential oil oregano in buttermilk / Microencapsulación de enterocina y aceite esencial de orégano en suero de leche

A pesquisa busca técnicas alternativas para expansão da vida de prateleira dos alimentos, isto tem impulsionado estudos sobre a utilização de conservantes naturais, tais como as bacteriocinas e óleos essenciais, que são considerados agentes antimicrobianos naturais. No entanto estes antimicrobianos naturais, não são adicionados diretamente em produtos alimentícios, devido a alterações sensoriais e em suas características físico e química. Com avanço tecnológico da microencapsulação, tem sido um potencial em fornecer sistemas que garantem estabilidade para os antimicrobianos naturais desta forma podendo compor a matriz de alimentos. Portanto, o objetivo desse trabalho foi microencapsular a enterocina produzida por Enterococcus durans MF5 e óleo de orégano usando leitelho. Para a microencapsulação, foram realizados três tratamentos: T1 controle leitelho, T2 leitelho/enterocina (LE), e T3 leitelho/enterocina/óleo (LEO). O material foi submetido ao processo de spray dryer e foram realizados ensaios para determinar a atividade antimicrobiana do material encapsulado contra as bactérias Listeria monocytogenes, Listeria innocua e Listeria ivanovi. O rendimento da microencapsulação foi de 13,01% e 11,63% para LE e LEO, respectivamente. Os resultados apresentados nos microencapsulados LE e LEO mostraram inibição contra todas as bactérias teste, foi constatado que a microencapsulação de enterocina e óleo de orégano mantiveram seu poder antimicrobiano. A efetividade da microencapsulação foi realizada por (FTIR), onde picos de intensidade entre as amostras na região 1000 a 930 cm-¹ e 1800 a 1500 cm-¹ foram observadas. Os resultados apontam para mudança no perfil químico das amostras encapsuladas, corroborando com a hipótese que o leitelho apresentou papel encapsulante da bactericiona e óleo de orégano.Portanto a microencapsulação aumenta a eficácia antimicrobiana dos antimicrobianos.

The research seeks alternative techniques for expanding the shelf life of foods, this has driven studies on the use of natural preservatives, such as bacteriocins and essential oils, which are considered natural antimicrobial agents. However, these natural antimicrobials are not directly added to food products due to sensory changes and their physical and chemical characteristics. With technological advancement of microencap- sulation, it has been a potential to provide systems that ensure stability for natural anti- microbials in this way can compose the food matrix. Therefore, this study has an objective microencapsulated the interocin and essencial oil, used buttermilk as a encapsulating ma- terial where, T1 Buttermilk Control, T2 buttermilk/enterocin (LE), e T3 Buttermilk/en- terocin/oil (LEO). The product has been submitted to spray drier process, were conducted trials to determine antimicrobial activity. Was observed with mass yield 13,01% e 11,63% para LE e LEO. These results the microencapsulate indicate then LE e LEO there was inihibiton against bacteria tests. Was observed that the microencapsulated between enter- ocin and essential oil oregano maintained antimicrobial power. The effectiveness of the microencapsulated was performed by Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) analysis, where a sample in the region 1000 to 930 cm-¹ and 1800 to 1500 cm-¹ was observed. Therefore microencapsulation increases antimicrobial efficacy of antimicrobials.

La investigación busca técnicas alternativas para ampliar la vida útil de los alimentos, esto ha impulsado estudios sobre el uso de conservantes naturales, como las bacteriocinas y los aceites esenciales, que se consideran agentes antimicrobianos naturales. Sin embargo, estos antimicrobianos naturales no se añaden directamente a los productos alimentarios debido a los cambios sensoriales y a sus características físicas y químicas. Con el avance tecnológico de la microencapsulación, ha sido un potencial para proporcionar sistemas que garanticen la estabilidad de los antimicrobianos naturales de esta manera puede componer la matriz alimentaria. Por lo tanto, este estudio tiene como objetivo microencapsular la interocina y el aceite esencial, utilizando suero de leche como material encapsulante donde, T1 Suero de leche Control, T2 Suero de leche/enterocina (LE), e T3 Suero de leche/enterocina/aceite (LEO). El producto ha sido sometido al proceso de secado por pulverización, se realizaron ensayos para determinar la actividad antimicrobiana. Se observó con rendimiento de masa 13,01% e 11,63% para LE e LEO. Estos resultados indican que el microencapsulado LE e LEO fue inhibido contra las pruebas bacterianas. Se observó que el microencapsulado entre enterocina y aceite esencial de orégano mantuvo el poder antimicrobiano. La eficacia del microencapsulado fue realizada por análisis de infrarrojo transformado de Fourier (FTIR), donde fue observada una muestra en la región de 1000 a 930 cm-¹ y de 1800 a 1500 cm-¹. Por lo tanto, la microencapsulación aumenta la eficacia antimicrobiana de los antimicrobianos. PALABRAS CLAVE: Bacteriocina; Enterococcus durans; Suero de Leche; Origanum vulgare; Spray Dryer.

Perfil dos casos de câncer de mama entre acometidos no acre período de 2015 a 2019 ­ um estudo transversal / Profile of breast cancer cases between affected in acre period from 2015 to 2019 - a cross-sectional study / Perfil de los casos de cáncer de mama entre las personas afectadas en el período acre de 2015 a 2019 - un estudio transversal

Este estudo teve como objetivo analisar o perfil dos casos de câncer de mama no estado do Acre no período de 2015 a 2019. Trata-se de um estudo quantitativo com delineamento transversal. A amostra foi constituída por todos os casos de câncer de mama registrados no Acre e inseridos no Departamento de Informática do Sistema Único de Saúde (DATASUS) no período de 2015 a 2019. Foram identificados no período 293 casos da doença, com maior número de casos registrados no ano de 2019 (25,0%), sendo a maioria do sexo feminino (98,0%), na faixa etária de 40 a 49 anos (29,0%). O tempo decorrido desde o diagnóstico até o início do tratamento foi de mais de 60 dias (51,0%). A modalidade terapêutica mais utilizada foi a quimioterapia (55,0%). O local da realização do tratamento ocorreu capital do estado Rio Branco (80,0%). A maior parte dos acometidos, ainda encontra-se em tratamento (56,0%), no entanto (44,0%) evoluiu para óbito. O aumento da doença com o passar dos anos é notável no Acre. É importante destacar que ações voltadas para a prevenção e controle do câncer de mama continuam sendo fundamentais para auxiliar na diminuição do número de casos, como o rastreamento e diagnóstico precoce.

This study aimed to analyze the profile of breast cancer cases in the state of Acre in the period from 2015 to 2019. This is a quantitative study with a cross-sectional design. The sample consisted of all breast cancer cases registered in Acre and inserted in the Informatics Department of the Unified Health System (DATASUS) in the period from 2015 to 2019. In the period 293 cases of the disease were identified, with a greater number of cases registered in 2019 (25.0%), with the majority being female (98.0%), aged 40 to 49 years (29.0%). The time elapsed from diagnosis to the start of treatment was more than 60 days (51.0%). The most used therapeutic modality was chemotherapy (55.0%). The place where the treatment was performed took place in the state of Rio Branco (80.0%). Most of the people affected are still under treatment (56.0%), however (44.0%) died. The increase in the disease over the years is notable in Acre. It is important to highlight that actions aimed at the prevention and control of breast cancer continue to be fundamental to assist in reducing the number of cases, such as screening and early diagnosis.

Este estudio tuvo como objetivo analizar el perfil de los casos de cáncer de mama en el estado de Acre en el período de 2015 a 2019. Se trata de un estudio cuantitativo con diseño transversal. La muestra consistió en todos los casos de cáncer de mama registrados en Acre e ingresados en el Departamento de Informática del Sistema Único de Salud (DATASUS) en el período de 2015 a 2019. En el periodo se identificaron 293 casos de la enfermedad, siendo el mayor número de casos registrados en 2019 (25,0%), siendo la mayoría mujeres (98,0%), en el grupo de edad de 40 a 49 años (29,0%). El tiempo transcurrido desde el diagnóstico hasta el inicio del tratamiento fue superior a 60 días (51,0%). La modalidad terapéutica más utilizada fue la quimioterapia (55,0%). El lugar donde se realizó el tratamiento fue Rio Branco, la capital del estado (80,0%). La mayoría de los pacientes afectados siguen en tratamiento (56,0%), sin embargo, (44,0%) fallecieron. El aumento de la enfermedad a lo largo de los años es notable en Acre. Es importante destacar que las acciones dirigidas a la prevención y control del cáncer de mama siguen siendo fundamentales para ayudar a reducir el número de casos, como el cribado y el diagnóstico precoz.

A scoping review on patient heterogeneity in economic evaluations of precision medicine based on basket trials.

INTRODUCTION: Considerable challenges in the economic evaluation of precision medicines have been mentioned in previous studies. However, they have not addressed how an economic assessment would be conducted based on basket trials (novel studies for evaluation of precision medicine effects) in which the included populations have specific biomarkers and various cancers. Since basket trial populations have remarkable heterogeneity, this study aims to investigate the concept of heterogeneity and specific method(s) for considering it in economic evaluations through guidelines and studies that could be applicable in economic evaluation based on basket trials. AREA COVERED: We searched PubMed, Web of Science, Scopus, Google Scholar, and Google to find studies and pharmacoeconomics guidelines. The inclusion criteria included subjects of patient heterogeneity and suggested explicit method(s). Thirty-nine guidelines and 43 studies were included and evaluated. None of these materials mentioned disease types in a target population as a factor causing heterogeneity. Moreover, in economic evaluations, patient heterogeneity has been considered with four general approaches subgroup analysis, individual-based models, sensitivity analysis, and regression models. EXPERT OPINION: Type of disease is not considered a contributing factor in population heterogeneity, and the probable appropriate method for this issue could be individual-based models.

End-point definition and trial design to advance tuberculosis vaccine development.

Tuberculosis (TB) remains a leading infectious cause of death worldwide and the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic has negatively impacted the global TB burden of disease indicators. If the targets of TB mortality and incidence reduction set by the international community are to be met, new more effective adult and adolescent TB vaccines are urgently needed. There are several new vaccine candidates at different stages of clinical development. Given the limited funding for vaccine development, it is crucial that trial designs are as efficient as possible. Prevention of infection (POI) approaches offer an attractive opportunity to accelerate new candidate vaccines to advance into large and expensive prevention of disease (POD) efficacy trials. However, POI approaches are limited by imperfect current tools to measure Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection end-points. POD trials need to carefully consider the type and number of microbiological tests that define TB disease and, if efficacy against subclinical (asymptomatic) TB disease is to be tested, POD trials need to explore how best to define and measure this form of TB. Prevention of recurrence trials are an alternative approach to generate proof of concept for efficacy, but optimal timing of vaccination relative to treatment must still be explored. Novel and efficient approaches to efficacy trial design, in addition to an increasing number of candidates entering phase 2-3 trials, would accelerate the long-standing quest for a new TB vaccine.

Optimal sample size determination for single-arm trials in pediatric and rare populations with Bayesian borrowing.

In many therapeutic areas with unmet medical needs, such as pediatric oncology and rare diseases, one of the deterrent factors for clinical trial interpretability is the limited sample size with less-than-ideal operating characteristics. Single arm is usually the only viable design due to feasibility and ethical concerns. For the trial results to be more interpretable and conclusive, the evaluation of operating characteristics, such as type I error rate and power, and the appropriate utilization of prior information for study design, shall be prespecified and fully investigated during the trial planning phase. So far, very few existing literature addressed optimal sample size determination issues for the planning of pediatric and rare population trials, with majority of research focusing on analysis perspective with focus on Bayesian borrowing. In practice, when a single-arm trial is designed for rare population, it is not uncommon that the only information available is from an earlier trial and/or a few clinical publications based on observational studies, often constituting mixed or uncertain conclusions. In light of this, an optimal Bayesian sample size determination method for single-arm trial with binary or continuous endpoint is proposed, where conflicting prior beliefs can be readily incorporated. Prior effective sample size can be calculated to assess the robustness as well as the prior information borrowed. Moreover, due to the lack of closed-form posterior distributions in general, an alternative approach for calculating Bayesian power is described. Simulation studies are provided to demonstrate the utility of the proposed methods. In addition, a case study in pediatric patients with leukemia is included to illustrate the proposed method with the existing approaches.

Physiological stress in response to multitasking and work interruptions: Study protocol.

BACKGROUND: The biopsychological response patterns to digital stress have been sparsely investigated so far. Important potential stressors in modern working environments due to increased digitalization are multitasking and work interruptions. In this study protocol, we present a protocol for a laboratory experiment, in which we will investigate the biopsychological stress response patterns to multitasking and work interruptions. METHODS: In total, N = 192 healthy, adult participants will be assigned to six experimental conditions in a randomized order (one single-task, three dual-task (two in parallel and one as interruption), one multitasking, and one passive control condition). Salivary alpha-amylase as well as heart rate as markers for Sympathetic Nervous System Activity, heart rate variability as measure for Parasympathetic Nervous System (PNS) activity, and cortisol as measure for activity of the hypothalamic-pituitary adrenal (HPA) axis will be assessed at six time points throughout the experimental session. Furthermore, inflammatory markers (i.e., IL-6, C-reactive protein (CRP), and secretory immunoglobulin-A) will be assessed before and after the task as well as 24 hours after it (IL-6 and CRP only). Main outcomes will be the time course of these physiological stress markers. Reactivity of these measures will be compared between the experimental conditions (dual-tasking, work interruptions, and multitasking) with the control conditions (single-tasking and passive control). DISCUSSION: With this study protocol, we present a comprehensive experiment, which will enable an extensive investigation of physiological stress-responses to multitasking and work interruptions. Our planned study will contribute to a better understanding of physiological response patterns to modern (digital) stressors. Potential risks and limitations are discussed. The findings will have important implications, especially in the context of digital health in modern working and living environments.

Bayesian basket trial design with false-discovery rate control.

BACKGROUND: Recent advances in developing "tumor agnostic" oncology therapies have identified molecular targets that define patient subpopulations in a manner that supersedes conventional criteria for cancer classification. These successes have produced effective targeted therapies that are administered to patients regardless of their tumor histology. Trials have evolved as well with master protocol designs. By blending translational and clinical science, basket trials in particular are well-suited to investigate and develop targeted therapies among multiple cancer histologies. However, basket trials intrinsically involve more complex design decisions, including issues of multiple testing across baskets, and guidance for investigators is needed. METHODS: The sensitivity of the multisource exchangeability model to prior specification under differing degrees of response heterogeneity is explored through simulation. Then, a multisource exchangeability model design that incorporates control of the false-discovery rate is presented and a simulation study compares the operating characteristics to a design where the family-wise error rate is controlled and to the frequentist approach of treating the baskets as independent. Simulations are based on the original design of a real-world clinical trial, the SUMMIT trial, which investigated Neratinib treatment for a variety of solid tumors. The methods studied here are specific to single-arm phase II trials with binary outcomes. RESULTS: Values of prior probability of exchangeability in the multisource exchangeability model between 0.1 and 0.3 provide the best trade-offs between gain in precision and bias, especially when per-basket sample size is below 30. Application of these calibration results to a re-analysis of the SUMMIT trial showed that the breast basket exceeded the null response rate with posterior probability of 0.999 while having low posterior probability of exchangeability with all other baskets. Simulations based on the design of the SUMMIT trial revealed that there is meaningful improvement in power even in baskets with small sample size when the false-discovery rate is controlled as opposed to the family-wise error rate. For example, when only the breast basket was active, with a sample size of 25, the power was 0.76 when the false-discovery rate was controlled at 0.05 but only 0.56 when the family-wise error rate was controlled at 0.05, indicating that impractical sample sizes for the phase II setting would be needed to achieve acceptable power while controlling the family-wise error rate in this setting of a trial with 10 baskets. CONCLUSION: Selection of the prior exchangeability probability based on calibration and incorporation of false-discovery rate control result in multisource exchangeability model designs with high power to detect promising treatments in the context of phase II basket trials.

Cancer patient survival can be parametrized to improve trial precision and reveal time-dependent therapeutic effects.

Individual participant data (IPD) from oncology clinical trials is invaluable for identifying factors that influence trial success and failure, improving trial design and interpretation, and comparing pre-clinical studies to clinical outcomes. However, the IPD used to generate published survival curves are not generally publicly available. We impute survival IPD from ~500 arms of Phase 3 oncology trials (representing ~220,000 events) and find that they are well fit by a two-parameter Weibull distribution. Use of Weibull functions with overall survival significantly increases the precision of small arms typical of early phase trials: analysis of a 50-patient trial arm using parametric forms is as precise as traditional, non-parametric analysis of a 90-patient arm. We also show that frequent deviations from the Cox proportional hazards assumption, particularly in trials of immune checkpoint inhibitors, arise from time-dependent therapeutic effects. Trial duration therefore has an underappreciated impact on the likelihood of success.